Capecitabine, Cyclophosphamide, Lapatinib Ditosylate, and Trastuzumab in Treating Patients With HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcellscancercapecitabinemetastases
  Phrases that lowered it: participantswithin weeksweeks beforeinvestigatoruln
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 26.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15253 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 70319 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Study in Subjects With Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Progressed After Taxanes Treatment. NCT01050322 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Vinorelbine With Trastuzumab Emtansine in Pre-Treated HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02658084 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab and Gemcitabine in HER2-negative ABC NCT03025880 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• DETECT III - A Multicenter, Phase III Study to Compare Standard Therapy +/- Lapatinib in HER2-ve MBC-Patients With HER2+ve CTCs NCT01619111 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• BYL719 + T-DM1 in HER2(+) Metastatic Breast Cancer Pts Who Progress on Prior Trastuzumab & Taxane Tx NCT02038010 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.