Genetic Effects on Dopamine Response to an Opiate
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (102 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-04-27, after 2013-06-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-04-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: brainmriheadprostatepet
Phrases that lowered it: effectbloodscreeningcopd55 -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 31 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 31557 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5748 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 30.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- morphine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pioglitazone to Treat Opioid Withdrawal Symptoms NCT01517165 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- Dopaminergic Modulation of Brain Activation Using Simultaneous PET/Pharmacological MRI NCT03326245 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Neuroimmune Effects of Opioid Administration NCT03801629 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Brain Networks and Addiction Susceptibility NCT01924468 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Title: Effect of Opioid Receptor Modulation on Alcohol Self-Administration and Neural Response to Alcohol Cues in Heavy Drinkers: Role of OPRM1 Gene Variation NCT02639273 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.