Oprozomib and Dexamethasone,in Combination With Lenalidomide or Oral Cyclophosphamide to Treat Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-09-23, after 2013-10-28 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “safety”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 89 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerbreastprostatecellradiation
Phrases that lowered it: myelomalenalidomidedexamethasonetopicaloral -
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 308 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 21552 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 308 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 89 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 104007 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 21552 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 30.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cyclophosphamide, dexamethasone, lenalidomide, oprozomib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Oprozomib, Pomalidomide, and Dexamethasone in Adults With Primary Refractory or Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01999335 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
- Phase 1b Study Evaluating OPomD in Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02939183 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- A Study of Oprozomib, Melphalan, and Prednisone in Transplant Ineligible Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT02072863 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- A Study of ARRY-520 and Bortezomib Plus Dexamethasone in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01248923 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- A Study of ARRY-520 in Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT00821249 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.