Study of Vinblastine in Combination With Nilotinib in Children, Adolescents, and Young Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-04-25, after 2016-07-06 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ulnpatientsfunctiongliomachemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: childrenopen labeldosedays beforedrugs -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 0.5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 20 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 0.5 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 20 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 37 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 21.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 13746 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3034 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nilotinib, vinblastine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study Of Vinblastine in Combination With Nilotinib in Children, Adolescents and Young Adults NCT01884922 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Study of Platelet Derived Growth Factor Receptor (PDGFR) in Recurrent Malignant Gliomas NCT01140568 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Nilotinib in Advanced Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GIST) NCT00782834 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Nilotinib in Combination With Chemotherapy in Elderly Patients With Philadelphia Chromosome Positive Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia NCT01528085 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Nilotinib Pre and Post Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation NCT00750659 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.