Comparative Study of BAY86-5300 With a Flexible Extended Regimen for Dysmenorrhea

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationbaselineonsetepisodebleeding
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofjapaneseefficacyand safetypatients who
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 478 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 80 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparative Study of BAY86-5300 With an Extended Flexible Regimen for Endometriosis NCT01697111 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Whether Study Drug BAY1128688 Brings Pain Relief to Women With Endometriosis and if so to Get a First Idea Which Dose(s) Work Best NCT03373422 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• To Investigate the Pharmacological Effects, Drug Blood Levels and Safety of an Intrauterine System Releasing the Study Drug BAY1007626 in Comparison to Mirena and Jaydess in Healthy Young Women Treated for 90 Days to Determine the Drug Dose for Further Development NCT02490774 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Contraceptive Vaginal Rings on Primary Dysmenorrhea (P08257/MK-8175A/MK-8342B-057) NCT01670656 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study in Healthy Tubal Ligated Women to Evaluate Pharmacodynamics, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of BAY1002670 NCT01816815 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.