Sorafenib and Radioembolization With Sir-Spheres® for the Treatment of Metastatic Ocular Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomasorafenibmelanomaulncell
  Phrases that lowered it: trialpatientsaimrenalocular
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Erlotinib Plus Bevacizumab in Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) as Second-line Therapy NCT01180959 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of Regorafenib and SIR-Spheres® Microspheres Radioembolization in Patients With Refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer With Liver Metastases NCT02195011 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Isolated Hepatic Perfusion in Combination With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Uveal Melanoma Metastases NCT04463368 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Encorafenib + Binimetinib + Pembrolizumab in Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic BRAF V600 Mutant Melanoma NCT02902042 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Evaluate Safety and Tolerability in Dose Escalation of Sorafenib in Advanced Renal Cell Cancer NCT01189370 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.