Quantifying the Presence of Lung Disease and Pulmonary Hypertension in Children With Sickle Cell Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (141 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartbetatermacutepulmonary
  Phrases that lowered it: lungcellpatientssingleaged
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 44002 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 307 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6529 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of Hemoglobin SC Disease With Hydroxyurea NCT02336373 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Inhaled Corticosteroid Use to Prevent Acute Chest Syndrome Recurrence in Children Between 1 and 4 With Sickle Cell Disease: a Feasibility Trial NCT02187445 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Anticoagulation For Pulmonary Hypertension in Sickle Cell Disease NCT01036802 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Vitamin D for Sickle-cell Respiratory Complications NCT01443728 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Macitentan in Pulmonary Hypertension of Sickle Cell Disease NCT02651272 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.