A Phase 2 Pilot Study to Assess ASP7147 in Patients With Diarrhea Predominant Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS-D)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ibsbowelwomendiarrheaand tolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: alcoholtrialabuseother clinicalevaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of RDX5791 for the Treatment of Constipation Predominant Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS-C) NCT01340053 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Multi-Center Trial to Determine the Safety and Efficacy of LX1033 in Subjects With Diarrhea-Predominant Irritable Bowel Syndrome NCT01494233 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Olorinab in Irritable Bowel Syndrome With Predominant Constipation (IBS-C) and Irritable Bowel Syndrome With Predominant Diarrhea (IBS-D) NCT04043455 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
• Study of Asimadoline to Treat Diarrhea-Predominant Irritable Bowel Syndrome (D-IBS) NCT01100684 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ASP0456 in Patients With Constipation Predominant Irritable Bowel Syndrome NCT02316899 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.