CPT and Smoking Cessation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (56 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-07-30, after 2013-12-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: myocardialinfarctionmonthsbrainevidence
Phrases that lowered it: smokingabusesmokersstudycigarettes -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 45.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 119 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2/3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 64150 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 125 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 119 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 64150 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6338 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 45.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bupropion, nicotine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment of Smoking Among Individuals With PTSD NCT00937235 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Smoking Termination / Anxiety Reduction Treatment (ST/ART) NCT01789125 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Development of Positive Psychotherapy for Smoking Cessation NCT01451814 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Smoking Cessation for Depression and Anxiety Treatment NCT02002858 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Persistence-Targeted Smoking Cessation NCT01654107 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.