A Randomized Phase 2 Study of Atezolizumab (an Engineered Anti-PDL1 Antibody) Compared With Docetaxel in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Failed Platinum Therapy - POPLAR
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-09-06, after 2013-08-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellplatinumfailurestageradiation
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andparticipantsthe efficacysafety of -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 185 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 656 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 656 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 185 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8733 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2161 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- atezolizumab, docetaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Atezolizumab Compared With Docetaxel in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Failed Platinum-Containing Therapy NCT02008227 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab Compared With Docetaxel in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) After Failure With Platinum-Containing Chemotherapy NCT02813785 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab in Combination With Carboplatin Plus (+) Paclitaxel With or Without Bevacizumab Compared With Carboplatin+Paclitaxel+Bevacizumab in Participants With Stage IV Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT02366143 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab in Combination With Carboplatin + Paclitaxel or Carboplatin + Nab-Paclitaxel Compared With Carboplatin + Nab-Paclitaxel in Participants With Stage IV Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) [IMpower131] NCT02367794 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab in Combination With Carboplatin Plus (+) Nab-Paclitaxel Compared With Carboplatin+Nab-Paclitaxel in Participants With Stage IV Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT02367781 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.