A Study of Subcutaneously Administered Tocilizumab in Participants With Systemic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: arthritistbchronicdiseasecurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetysafety ofthe pharmacokineticsreceive
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 656 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 187 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 1 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 2112 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Subcutaneously (SC) Administered Tocilizumab (TCZ) in Participants With Polyarticular-Course Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (pJIA) NCT01904279 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Pharmacokinetics and Safety of Tocilizumab (RoActemra/Actemra) in Participants Less Than 2 Years Old With Active Systemic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (sJIA) NCT01455701 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Study of Subcutaneous Tocilizumab as Monotherapy and/or in Combination With Non-Biologic Disease Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (DMARDs) in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01941095 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tocilizumab (RoActemra) in Tocilizumab-Naive Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis and Inadequate Response to Non-Biologic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (DMARDs) and/or Biologic Therapy NCT02001987 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study of Subcutaneous RoActemra/Actemra (Tocilizumab) as Monotherapy or in Combination With Methotrexate or Other Non-Biologic DMARDs in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01995201 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.