Phase I Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of CUDC-427 When Given to Patients With Advanced and Refractory Solid Tumors or Lymphoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartcardiaccancerqtcmyocardial
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsscreeningdoseoraldrug
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase I Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Orally Administered CUDC-101 in Cancer Patients NCT01702285 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• A Phase I Study of the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Anti-Tumor Activity of CUDC-101 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT00728793 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• CUDC-907 Treatment in People With Metastatic and Locally Advanced Thyroid Cancer NCT03002623 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• A Safety and Tolerability Study of NC762 in Subjects With Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT04875806 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Trial of CUDC-907 in Children and Young Adults With Relapsed or Refractory Solid Tumors, CNS Tumors, or Lymphoma NCT02909777 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.