Beraprost-314d Added-on to Tyvaso® (BEAT)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebodouble blindcontrolledbaselineleft
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofdrugantiretroviral
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose-response Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Beraprost Sodium Modified Release (BPS-MR) in Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) NCT00989963 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Phase III Clinical Worsening Study of UT-15C in Subjects With PAH Receiving Background Oral Monotherapy NCT01560624 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Open-label, Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of TreT in Subjects With PAH Currently Using Tyvaso NCT03950739 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Once Weekly SC Pemziviptadil (PB1046) in Subjects With Symptomatic PAH NCT03556020 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• Study of Sotatercept in Newly Diagnosed Intermediate- and High-Risk PAH Participants (MK-7962-005/A011-13) NCT04811092 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.