Botulinum Toxin Type A for Treating Allodynic Pain in SCI and MS
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-08-31, after 2013-10-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: paintypeplaceboneuropathicmultiple sclerosis
Phrases that lowered it: pressuremultiplepatientsbleedingthe efficacy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 20.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 67 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 53 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14538 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3128 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 20.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- botulinum toxin type a
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Injecting Botulinum Toxin A Underneath the Skin to Treat Spinal Cord Pain in Patients With Spinal Cord Injury NCT02736890 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Investigation of Efficacy of Botulinum Toxin A (Dysport) in Chronic Low Back Pain NCT02221648 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
- Botulinum Toxin Injections for Oral Neuropathic Pain NCT03555916 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- IncobotulinumtoxinA for Treatment of Focal Cancer Pain After Surgery and/or Radiation NCT01931865 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
- Botulinum Toxin-A as a Treatment for Chronic Muscle-Related Pain in Adults With Spastic Cerebral Palsy: a Randomized Controlled Trial NCT02434549 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.