Estradiol Levels in Patients Treated With Estring

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastatictherapyeffectiveconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: vaginalvisitsingletrial toblood
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 18955 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Use of Estriol at Distal Third of Vagina Improving Coital Pain in Post-menopause Women NCT03116022 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial to Assess the Safety of 0.005 % Estriol Vaginal Gel in Hormone Receptor-Positive Postmenopausal Women With Early Stage Breast Cancer in Treatment With Aromatase Inhibitor in the Adjuvant Setting NCT02413008 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of Low Dose Vaginal Estrogens in the Treatment of Atrophic Vaginitis NCT00816556 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
• Effects of Vaginal Estrogen on Serum Estradiol During Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy in Breast Cancer Patients with Vulvovaginal Atrophy: a Prospective Trial NCT06654570 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Equivalence of Estradiol Vaginal Cream 0.01% to Estrace® Cream 0.01% in Atrophic Vaginitis NCT03294538 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.