The Efficacy of AZD1722 in Constipation Predominant Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS-C)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (75 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellmajordefinedibs
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningperiodinvestigatorrespiratoryclinical
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial for New Treatment of Adult Participants With Irritable Bowel Syndrome NCT03721107 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of SYN-010 in IBS-C NCT03763175 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of Tenapanor for Treatment of IBS-C in Pediatric Patients 12 to Less Than 18 Years NCT05643534 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Phase 2 Trial of BEKINDA (Ondansetron 12 mg Bimodal Release Tablets) for Diarrhea Predominant Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS-D) NCT02757105 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Study of the Research Medicine CIN-103 in Adults With Irritable Bowel Syndrome With Predominant Diarrhea (IBS-D). NCT06153420 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.