A Global Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Elagolix in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Endometriosis-Associated Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (181 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painchronicassociatedentrysubject has
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacysafetyperiodthe screeningevaluate the
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Elagolix in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Endometriosis-Associated Pain NCT01620528 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Elagolix in Participants With Moderate to Severe Endometriosis-Associated Pain NCT03213457 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Elagolix in Participants With Endometriosis With Associated Moderate to Severe Pain NCT03343067 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Safety and Efficacy of Elagolix in Adults With Moderate to Severe Endometriosis-Associated Pain NCT01760954 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Global Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Safety and Efficacy of Elagolix in Women With Moderate to Severe Endometriosis-associated Pain NCT02143713 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.