Adenosine Effect on Persistent Pulmonary Vein Isolation Line Evaluation (APPLE Trial)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: atrialfibrillationlinepatients withsymptomatic
  Phrases that lowered it: effectdrugveinscriteriatrial
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 93 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of Amiodarone on the Procedure Outcome in Long-standing Persistent Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Pulmonary Vein Antral Isolation NCT01173809 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Vein of Marshall Ethanol Infusion for Persistent Atrial Fibrillation NCT01898221 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Adenosine to Assess Complete Conduction Block During Catheter Ablation of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation NCT03032965 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Left Atrial Appendage (LAA) Occluders After Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation NCT01695824 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• First Line Radiofrequency Ablation Versus Antiarrhythmic Drugs for Persistent Atrial Fibrillation Treatment (RAAFT-3) NCT04037397 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.