Characterization of Exposure From Topical Administration of [14C] Umeclidinium to Axilla or Palm of Healthy Male Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-02-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: qtsubjectfirst dosedayswork
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyrangeinvestigatornormalblood
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1823 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 324 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Microdose Study in Healthy Subjects to Describe Intravenous Pharmacokinetics of GSK3191607 NCT02737007 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetic of Single and 14 Day Repeat Topical Application of GSK1940029 NCT01938482 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Recovery, Excretion and Pharmacokinetics of [14C]-GSK2140944 Administered as a Single Intravenous and Single Oral Dose to Healthy Adult Male Subjects NCT02000765 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Relative Bioavailability and Food Effect Study of Losmapimod 15 mg Tablets NCT05002231 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Four Part Study to Investigate Relative Bioavailability, Safety and Tolerability of up to 5 Oral Formulation of GSK2251052 in Order to Identify a Formulation for Further Evaluation in a Future Later Phase Study NCT01702350 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.