A Safety and Efficacy Trial of a Treat and Extend Protocol Using Ranibizumab With and Without Laser Photocoagulation for Diabetic Macular Edema

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: maculardiabeticstudy eyevisiteffective
  Phrases that lowered it: pressuremmhg9020blood
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy & Safety Trial of Intravitreal Injections Combined With PRP for CSME Secondary to Diabetes Mellitus (DAVE) NCT01552408 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• A Study of Intravitreal Injections of 2.0mg Ranibizumab in Subjects With Chronic Fluid On OCT Post Multiple Injections With Ranibizumab (Super-dose Anti-VEgf SAVE Trial) NCT01025232 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Learn How Well a Higher Amount of Aflibercept Given as an Injection Into the Eye Works and How Safe it is in People With Reduced Vision Due to Swelling in the Macula, Central Part of the Retina Caused by a Blocked Vein in the Retina (Macula Edema Secondary to Retinal Vein Occlusion) NCT05850520 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Ranibizumab and Bevacizumab for Diabetic Macular Edema NCT01610557 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Phase II Combination Steroid and Anti-VEGF for Persistent DME NCT01945866 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.