Phase 1 Study Assessing the Safety and Tolerability of CTX-4430 in Cystic Fibrosis Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (74 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientgenotypediagnosispresence ofplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicallungto evaluateevaluate themultiple
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 35.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• EMPIRE CF: A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of CTX-4430 in Adult Cystic Fibrosis (CF) Patients NCT02443688 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, PK and PD of FDL169 in Cystic Fibrosis Subjects NCT03093714 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study Assessing PTI-428 Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Effect in Subjects With Cystic Fibrosis NCT03591094 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• 28 Day Repeat Dose in Cystic Fibrosis Patients NCT00903201 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Safety of VX-152 Combination Therapy in Adults With Cystic Fibrosis NCT02951195 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.