Safety And Immunogenicity Of Novel Candidate Blood-Stage Malaria Vaccine P27A : Phase Ia/Ib

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagefunctioncelldefinedadjuvant
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevolunteersvaccinationhealthyimmunogenicity
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Clinical Trial to Assess the Safety and Immunogenicity of New Malaria Vaccine Candidates ChAd63 Pfs25-IMX313 and MVA Pfs25-IMX313 NCT02532049 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Safety, Immunogenicity and Efficacy Against of a Combined Malaria Vaccine in Healthy Malaria-naïve Adults NCT01366534 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Determine the Effects of an Investigational Malaria Vaccine Given to Adults Living in the United States and Thereafter to Adults Living in Kenya NCT00666380 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Safety, Immunogenicity and Parasite Growth Inhibition of an Asexual Blood Stage Vaccine for P. Falciparum Malaria NCT00984763 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Assessment of the Malaria Vaccine Candidate SumayaVac-1 in Healthy Adults Aged 18-45 Years Living in a Malaria Endemic Country NCT05644067 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.