Study of Human Non-Shivering Thermogenesis and Basal Metabolic Rate
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (102 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-06-11, after 2014-02-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartkidneycontrolledgreaterallergic
Phrases that lowered it: healthyparticipantsmgchronic obstructiveobstructive pulmonary -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 238 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 35 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 35 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 238 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 8 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 50937 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8446 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- caffeine, dantrolene, mirabegron, naltrexone, phentermine, pindolol, propranolol, topiramate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Physiological Responses and Adaptation of Brown Adipose Tissue to Chronic Treatment With Beta3-Adrenergic Receptor Agonists NCT03049462 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Effects of RM-493 on Energy Expenditure in Obese Individuals NCT01867437 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Efficacy Study of Betahistine on Body Weight in Obese Female Subjects NCT00748436 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- A Study to Characterise the Physiology of Weight Loss and Regain Under Dietary, Behavioural and Pharmacological Interventions in Healthy Obese Subjects NCT01597609 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Effects of Roflumilast on Insulin and Blood Sugar Levels in Prediabetic Overweight and Obese Individuals NCT01862029 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.