Efficacy and Safety of Anti-MAP Therapy in Adult Crohn's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectpriorto screeningplacebostable
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofupperthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Brodalumab (AMG 827) in Adults With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT01150890 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• 9 mg Budesonide Once Daily (OD) Versus 3 mg Budesonide Three Times Daily (TID) in Active Crohn's Disease NCT01086553 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Mucosal Activity to Improve the Prognosis of Patients With Crohn's Disease Treated With Immunosuppressants NCT01562951 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT04102111 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Two Treatment Algorithms in Adults With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT01235689 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.