Pemetrexed/Platinum With or Without Bevacizumab in Brain Metastases From Patients With EGFR/ALK Negative Non-Squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellbrainsmallsquamouslung
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsthe uppertimes theupper limitlimit of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 82 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• TAB008 Compared to Avastin® in Patients With EGFR Wild-type Non-squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT05427305 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Compare Bevacizumab in Combination With Erlotinib Versus Erlotinib Alone in NSCLC Patients Activating EGFR Mutations NCT02759614 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of IBI305 in Patients With Advanced or Recurrent Non-squamous NSCLC NCT02954172 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab in First Line NSCLC Patients NCT03836066 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Trial of Bevacizumab and Ixabepilone for Advanced or Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT01057212 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.