Denosumab for Breast Cancer With Bone Mets

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-10-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercarcinomametastaticchemotherapyradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferasebreast cancermalelesionsproducts
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 149 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12081 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 27465 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 519 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Denosumab in Treating Patients With ER and/or PR Positive, HER2 Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer With Bone Metastases and Detectable Circulating Tumor Cells NCT03070002 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Pilot Study to Evaluate the Impact of Denosumab on Disseminated Tumor Cells (DTC) in Patients With Early Stage Breast Cancer NCT01545648 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Study of Denosumab as Adjuvant Treatment for Women With High Risk Early Breast Cancer Receiving Neoadjuvant or Adjuvant Therapy (D-CARE) NCT01077154 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate Denosumab in Young Patients With Primary Breast Cancer NCT01864798 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Denosumab in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Refractory Osteosarcoma NCT02470091 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.