Study of Aflibercept as Maintenance Therapy Following Induction With Aflibercept in Combination With XELOX, as First-Line Treatment for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patient

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticulnbrainpriorline
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantsolidbleedinglabel
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7011 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 735 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 37755 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Quality of Life Study of Aflibercept in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Previously Treated With an Oxaliplatin-Based Regimen NCT01571284 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Colorectal Cancer Metastatic NCT01670721 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Study to Identify Biomarkers of Clinical Response to Aflibercept in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02045030 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Aflibercept Versus Placebo With FOLFIRI in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Previously Treated With an Oxaliplatin Chemotherapy NCT01661270 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Aflibercept and FOLFOX6 Treatment for Previously Untreated Stage IV Colorectal Cancer NCT01652196 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.