Complementary Neurosteroid Intervention in Gulf War Illnesses (GWVI)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (37 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-10-10, after 2013-10-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-10-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 113 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: paincancerplacebotrialpatient
Phrases that lowered it: determinedhematologicalhistorypulmonarygastrointestinal -
Sponsor's past trials: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 123 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 113 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 24 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pregnenolone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Neurosteroids for Treatment of PTSD in Veterans NCT03799562 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Neurosteroids in PTSD - Biomarkers to Therapeutics NCT03491007 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
- Neuroactive Steroids and Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) in OEF/OIF Veterans NCT01336413 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Neurosteroids as Novel Therapeutic Agents for Chronic Pain in OEF/OIF Veterans NCT01898013 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Research Examining Gulf War Illness in Our Nations Service Members NCT01846182 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.