Propranolol in Severely Burned Children
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-04-23, after 2013-12-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: injurychildrenhourssurgical procedurepresence
Phrases that lowered it: cancerpatient20aidsefficacy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 35% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 81411 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 2/3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12859 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 18 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 20 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 35% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 13 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 81411 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12859 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- metoprolol, propranolol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Protective Effects of Propranolol in Adults NCT01902810 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
- Burn Healing and Analgesia With Propranolol NCT00934947 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Fenofibrate and Propranolol in Burn Patients NCT02452255 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
- Early Propranolol After Traumatic Brain Injury: Phase II NCT01202110 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- Study of Tolerability and Efficacy of BVS857 in Severe Burn Subjects NCT02074995 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.