A Study of Safety and Effectiveness of JNJ-54781532 in Patients With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: virusjnjhepatitisplaceboto screening
  Phrases that lowered it: moderatesubjects withand safetysevereefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of JNJ-77242113 in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT06049017 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Study of Adalimumab in Japanese Subjects With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT00853099 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Etrasimod Dose-Ranging Versus Placebo as Induction Therapy Study in Adult Japanese Subjects With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT05061446 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Clinical Activity and Safety of Oral NX-13 in Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT05785715 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Activity, and Safety of Vixarelimab in Participants With Moderate to Severe Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT06693908 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.