A Study of [14C]-LY3023703 in Healthy Participants
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2013-10-31, after 2013-10-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “safety”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: radiationeffectspriorhours28 days
Phrases that lowered it: healthyinvestigatorjudged14cparticipated -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 787 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 176 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 787 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 176 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of [¹⁴C]-LY3023414 in Healthy Participants NCT02575703 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Disposition of 14C-LY2452473 Following Oral Administration in Healthy Human Subjects NCT01275157 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study of Carbon-14-Labelled [14C] LY3437943 in Healthy Male Participants NCT05757531 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY2801653 in Healthy Participants NCT01981408 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study of [¹⁴C]-LY3202626 in Healthy Male Participants NCT02555449 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.