Dose Escalation Study to Investigate the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of GSK2849330 in Subjects With Advanced Her3-Positive Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerher2tumorbreasttumors
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatepharmacokineticssafetyopen labelpharmacodynamics
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1865 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 319 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Immuno Positron Emission Tomography Study of GSK2849330 in Subjects With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 3-Positive Solid Tumors NCT02345174 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of U3P1287/01, Including Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT00730470 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study of RO5479599 Alone or in Combination With Cetuximab or Erlotinib in Participants With Metastatic and/or Locally Advanced Malignant Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (HER3) Expressing Solid Tumors of Epithelial Cell Origin NCT01482377 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study of TAS0728 in Patients With Solid Tumors With HER2 or HER3 Abnormalities NCT03410927 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• Phase I/II Study of U3-1402 in Subjects With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 3 (HER3) Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02980341 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.