Multicentre Study To Assess Changes In Bone Mineral Density Of The Switch From Protease Inhibitors To Dolutegravir In HIV-1-Infected Subjects With Low Bone Mineral Density

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: boneulnpatientscellsbilirubin
  Phrases that lowered it: hiv infectedand safetyefficacy andstudy tosafety of
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Multicentre Study To Assess Changes In Bone Mineral Density Of The Switch From Tenofovir To Abacavir In Hiv-1-Infected Subjects With Loss Of Bone Mineral Density NCT01153217 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Safety and Effectiveness of Alendronate for Bone Mineral Density in HIV-infected Children and Adolescents NCT00921557 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Switching From a Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate (TDF) Containing Regimen to Elvitegravir/Cobicistat/Emtricitabine/ Tenofovir Alafenamide (E/C/F/TAF) Fixed-Dose Combination (FDC) in Virologically-Suppressed, HIV-1 Infected Adults Aged ≥ 60 Years NCT02616783 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Bone Antiresorptive Therapy With Antiretroviral Initiation (BATARI) Pilot Trial NCT01968850 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Bone Mineral Density in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1)-Infected Adult Subjects Switching From a Tenofovir Regimen to a Dolutegravir Plus Rilpivirine Regimen NCT02478632 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.