Phase 3 Study of Rucaparib as Switch Maintenance After Platinum in Relapsed High Grade Serous or Endometrioid Ovarian Cancer (ARIEL3)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-07-07, after 2014-04-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: platinumcancerchemotherapypriortumor
Phrases that lowered it: evaluateinterferedisordergastrointestinalthe investigator -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 17 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- rucaparib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- ARIEL4: A Study of Rucaparib Versus Chemotherapy BRCA Mutant Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancer Patients NCT02855944 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- A Study of Rucaparib in Patients With Platinum-Sensitive, Relapsed, High-Grade Epithelial Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancer (ARIEL2) NCT01891344 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Bevacizumab and Rucaparib in Recurrent Carcinoma of the Cervix or Endometrium NCT03476798 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Rucaparib MAintenance After Bevacizumab Maintenance Following Carboplatin Based First Line Chemotherapy in Ovarian Cancer Patients NCT04227522 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Rucaparib vs Placebo Maintenance Therapy in Metastatic and Recurrent Endometrial Cancer NCT03617679 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.