Evaluation of Anti-Hemagglutinin (Anti-HA) Antibodies as Protection From the Flu in Healthy People
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 0% of the time (33 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-09-30, after 2013-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 957 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diabetesmellitusheartor equalequal to
Phrases that lowered it: healthyinfluenzaparticipantsparticipantvaccine -
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 957 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 86 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Influenza A 2009 H1N1 Challenge Study in Healthy Adults NCT01646138 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Low Pathogenicity Avian H10N7 Influenza Virus in a Healthy Human Challenge Model NCT05436444 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of CR6261 in an H1N1 Influenza Healthy Volunteer Human Challenge Model NCT02371668 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Mucosal and Systemic Immunity After Viral Challenge of Healthy Volunteers Vaccinated With Inactivated Influenza Vaccine Via the Intranasal Versus Intramuscular Route NCT03845231 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of FLU-v in an H1N1 Influenza Human Challenge Model NCT03180801 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.