Progesterone for Smoking Relapse Prevention Following Delivery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 115 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationplacebomajorliverrelapse
  Phrases that lowered it: smokingand safetythe trialsmokersevaluate the
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 273 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 42 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3887 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 551 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Double-blind, Placebo-Controlled Pilot Study of Bupropion to Promote Smoking Cessation During Pregnancy NCT01286402 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Placebo-controlled Trial of Bupropion for Smoking Cessation in Pregnant Women NCT02188459 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Progesterone for Maintenance Tocolysis: A Randomized Placebo Controlled Trial NCT00946088 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Smoking, Sex Hormones, and Pregnancy NCT01811225 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Pilot Study of a New Nicotine Replacement Therapy NCT00764439 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.