Effects of Roflumilast in Hospitalized Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease( COPD) on Mortality and Re-hospitalization
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (84 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-11-30, after 2013-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lungliver diseaseedemaadmissionmortality
Phrases that lowered it: copdsmokingasthmapatients whodaily -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 41 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1157 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 535 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 66.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- roflumilast
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Roflumilast or Azithromycin to Prevent COPD Exacerbations Trial NCT04069312 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Effect of Roflumilast at Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT01473758 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
- A Multicenter Randomized Double-blind Clinical Study Evaluated the Safety, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Characteristics of Roflumilast in COPD Patients NCT02671942 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- Roflumilast as add-on Therapy in Early Cases of ARDS NCT04744090 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Rademikibart Add-on Treatment of an Acute COPD Exacerbation (Seabreeze STAT COPD) NCT06940154 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.