Epidural Analgesia Versus IV Analgesia in Lumbar Spine Fusions
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-09-30, after 2013-10-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: analgesiapainrandomizedundergoingcare
Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofpatients whocomparisonare pregnant -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 321 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 104 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 11130 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2104 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- hydromorphone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Postoperative subQ Pain Control for Spinal Fusion Surgery NCT03476811 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Longterm Postoperative Analgesia, Intravenous Lidocaine Infusion NCT03030560 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Comparison of Quadratus Lumborum Block Types NCT04588389 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
- Local Anesthetic Infiltration to Prevent Postoperative Pain After Lumbar Surgery NCT00825422 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of SX600 Administered by Lumbosacral Transforaminal Epidural Injection for Radicular Pain NCT03952377 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.