A Study of Quilizumab Versus Placebo in Patients With Refractory Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustdefinedpriorcancergreater than
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetydaysefficacy andwith chronicalcohol
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 165 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase III Study of Safety and Efficacy of Ligelizumab in the Treatment of CSU in Adolescents and Adults Inadequately Controlled With H1-antihistamines NCT03580369 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Dose-finding Study of QGE031 as add-on Therapy to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety in Patients With CSU NCT02477332 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study of and Efficacy of Ligelizumab in the Treatment of CSU in Adolescents and Adults Inadequately Controlled With H1-antihistamines. NCT03580356 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Subcutaneous Lirentelimab (AK002) in Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria NCT05528861 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• A Study of LY3454738 in Adults With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria NCT04159701 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.