Etanercept and Vascular Function in Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 29.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapypatientpatients willbreastfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisplaquesubjectsmalemoderate
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 68 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14662 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 62639 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Etanercept 50 mg Once Weekly Plus As Needed Topical Agent in Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT01313221 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Etanercept and Methotrexate in Combination or as Monotherapy in Psoriatic Arthritis NCT02376790 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Evaluate Efficacy, and Safety of Topical Therapy and Etanercept in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT01235442 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of HPP737 in Adult Patients With Plaque Psoriasis NCT07707141 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• HPP737 in Adult Patients With Moderate-to-severe Plaque Psoriasis. NCT07712705 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.