Two phosphAte taRGets in End-stage Renal Disease Trial (TARGET)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-04-30, after 2014-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientspatientserumstagetherapy
Phrases that lowered it: clinicalto evaluateresultsevaluate thetrial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 85785 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 54 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 1.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 28 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 85785 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 17288 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 69.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carbonate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Placebo Versus SBR759 in Lowering Phosphate in Dialysis Patients NCT01069692 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Individualized Treatment of Hyperphosphatemia in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients NCT03861247 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of SBR759 in Lowering Serum Phosphate Levels in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients on Hemodialysis NCT00704483 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- An 8-Week Study to Evaluate Tenapanor in the Treatment of Hyperphosphatemia in End-Stage Renal Disease Patients on Hemodialysis (ESRD-HD) NCT02675998 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Continuous Soluble Ferric Pyrophosphate (SFP) Iron Delivery Via Dialysate in Hemodialysis Patients (CRUISE 2) NCT01322347 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.