Intrapleural AdV-tk Therapy in Patients With Malignant Pleural Effusion

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustdlpatientvaccineprior
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andbreast cancersafety offev1clinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Intrapleural Instillation of the Nivolumab in Cancer Patients With Pleural Effusion. NCT04749602 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Combination Gene Transfer and Chemotherapy NCT01119664 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Intra-pleural Administration of GL-ONC1, a Genetically Modified Vaccinia Virus, in Patients With Malignant Pleural Effusion: Primary, Metastases and Mesothelioma NCT01766739 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Intrapleural Bevacizumab After Pleural Drainage in the Context of Breast Cancer NCT02250118 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• Intrapleural Bevacizumab and Cisplatin Therapy for Malignant Pleural Effusion Caused by Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01661790 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.