Ticagrelor in Severe Community Acquired Pneumonia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 30% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-12-31, after 2014-08-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientcellspatientsbowel000
Phrases that lowered it: daydrugmassbodystudy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 100% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3327 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1569 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ticagrelor
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Integrilin and Ilomedin in Combination in Comparison to Standard Treatment in Severe Pneumonia Patients With Severe Sepsis NCT01532544 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
- Targeting Platelet-Leukocyte Aggregates in Pneumonia With Ticagrelor NCT01883869 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of BT086 to Evaluate Adjunctive Therapy in sCAP NCT01420744 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Cx611-0204 SEPCELL Study NCT03158727 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Oral Zabofloxacin in Community Acquired Pneumonia NCT01081964 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.