A Study of JNJ-54767414 (HuMax CD38) (Anti-CD38 Monoclonal Antibody) in Combination With Backbone Treatments for the Treatment of Patients With Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 98 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 83.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 399793 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellconcurrentdiseaseregimenmyeloma
  Phrases that lowered it: multipleclinicalpaindrughepatitis
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 11 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of JNJ-54767414 (Daratumumab) in Combination With Bortezomib and Dexamethasone (D-Vd) in Japanese Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02497378 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study of JNJ-63723283, an Anti-programmed Death-1 Monoclonal Antibody, Administered in Combination With Daratumumab, Compared With Daratumumab Alone in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03357952 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Daratumumab in Patients With Multiple Myeloma Who Have Received at Least 3 Prior Lines of Therapy (Including a Proteasome Inhibitor [PI] and Immunomodulatory Drug [IMiD]) or Are Double Refractory to a PI and an IMiD NCT01985126 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of XMAB24306 in Combination With Daratumumab in Participants With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT05243342 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study of Daratumumab in Japanese Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02116569 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.