Assessment of the Efficacy and Safety of Olaparib Monotherapy Versus Physicians Choice Chemotherapy in the Treatment of Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients With Germline BRCA1/2 Mutations.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapydiseasepatients mustassess the
  Phrases that lowered it: open labeland safetysafety ofefficacy andrandomised
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1218 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Olaparib Treatment in Relapsed Germline Breast Cancer Susceptibility Gene (BRCA) Mutated Ovarian Cancer Patients Who Have Progressed at Least 6 Months After Last Platinum Treatment and Have Received at Least 2 Prior Platinum Treatments NCT02282020 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Open Label Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Olaparib in Confirmed Genetic BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutation Pats NCT01078662 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Phase I, Open-Label, 2 Part Multicentre Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Olaparib in Combination With Carboplatin in Patients With Advanced HER-2 Negative Breast Cancer NCT02561832 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• A Phase III Trial of Niraparib Versus Physician's Choice in HER2 Negative, Germline BRCA Mutation-positive Breast Cancer Patients NCT01905592 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Multicentre Study of Olaparib Maintenance Monotherapy in Platinum Sensitive Relapsed Non gBRCAm Ovarian Cancer Patients NCT03402841 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.