Clinical Trial of Solanezumab for Older Individuals Who May be at Risk for Memory Loss

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningbrainheaddiseasehas history
  Phrases that lowered it: dermatitisinvestigatordrugopen labelparticipants who
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 841 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 173 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Progress of Mild Alzheimer's Disease in Participants on Solanezumab Versus Placebo NCT01900665 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Solanezumab (LY2062430) in Participants With Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease NCT02760602 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• A Biomarker Study of Solanezumab in Patients With and Without Alzheimer's NCT01148498 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3303560 in Participants With Early Symptomatic Alzheimer's Disease NCT03518073 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Semorinemab in Patients With Prodromal to Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT03289143 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.