Treatment Differences Between Canagliflozin and Placebo in Insulin Secretion in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellmg dlstableplacebotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsinsulinscreeningto investigateinvestigate the
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Effects of Canagliflozin as Add-on Therapy to Insulin in the Treatment of Participants With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) NCT02139943 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• The CANTATA-M (CANagliflozin Treatment and Trial Analysis - Monotherapy) Trial NCT01081834 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• The CANTATA-D Trial (CANagliflozin Treatment and Trial Analysis - DPP-4 Inhibitor Comparator Trial) NCT01106677 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• The CANTATA-MP Trial (CANagliflozin Treatment and Trial Analysis - Metformin and Pioglitazone) NCT01106690 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness, Safety, and Tolerability of Canagliflozin in Combination With Metformin in the Treatment of Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus With Inadequate Glycemic Control With Diet and Exercise NCT01809327 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.