A PK Study of 3 Dosages of Tolvaptan in Patients With Syndrome of Inappropriate Antidiuretic Hormone Secretion (SIADH)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equal toor equalgreaterthe trialtype diabetes
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningsubjectshormonebloodhcv
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 436 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Extension Follow-up Trial to Evaluate the Long-term Safety of Children and Adolescent Participants With Euvolemic or Hypervolemic Hyponatremia NCT02020278 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Dolutegravir Renal Impairment Study NCT01353716 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• The the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of XNW3009 in Health Subject NCT04040907 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1, Open Label, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Effect of GSK1349572 on Iohexol and Para-Aminohippurate Clearance in Healthy Subjects NCT01214993 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Safety of ASP8232 in Subjects With Renal Impairment and in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Subjects With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT02218099 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.