A Phase 1/2 Study of HS-410 in Patients With Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer After TURBT
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-04-30, after 2013-12-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellscanceriiadjuvantgrade
Phrases that lowered it: open labelan opendosestudy tosafety -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Keywords listed: 10 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 30 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bcg vaccine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Pharmacology Study of Atezolizumab Alone and in Combination With Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) in High-Risk Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) Participants NCT02792192 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
- Study of ONCOFID-P-B™ (PACLITAXEL-HYALURONIC ACID) NCT04798703 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- ADSTILADRIN (=INSTILADRIN) in Patients With High-Grade, Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Unresponsive Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) NCT02773849 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Codex: Study of Inodiftagene Vixteplasmid (BC-819) in Unresponsive NMIBC NCT03719300 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- VPM1002BC in Recurrent Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02371447 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.