A Study of the Safety and Effectiveness of LY3053102 in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (60 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-02-28, after 2013-12-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: coronarycardiaccancerarterystable
Phrases that lowered it: type diabeteswith typemetforminmellitusscreening -
Sponsor's past trials: 811 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 176 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 127205 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16408 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 811 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 176 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 127205 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 16408 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 50.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- exenatide, metformin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3549492 in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) NCT05327595 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY2405319 in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01869959 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY2409021 in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01241448 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY2599506 (Oral Agent Medication: Glucokinase Activator 1) in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01029795 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
- A Study of LY2599506 in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01024244 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.